Just curious... anybody dabble in the stock market?
#61
Well, I seem to be good at picking the top of a market, that's for sure. Problem is that I seem to do the wrong thing.
After '08, I told myself that the next time the market started panicking, I'd follow the herd rather than stubbornly riding the bear. I'm having a difficult time convincing myself that that is truly the best idea right now.
After '08, I told myself that the next time the market started panicking, I'd follow the herd rather than stubbornly riding the bear. I'm having a difficult time convincing myself that that is truly the best idea right now.
Exactly. That's why having a fund with 1400-ish different small cap companies in wildly diverse fields is a good, safe spread and it outperforms the S&P500.
Take a look at this diversity: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual...folio-holdings
And the performance is nice, too.
Take a look at this diversity: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual...folio-holdings
And the performance is nice, too.
#65
Joe, if you sell now, that means you need to be able to correctly identify the real bottom (which may be yet to come . . . but might not). How good were you at identifying the peak?
At this point, you haven't lost anything, you still own the same amount of shares that you did before. If you sell now and then fail to identify the real bottom and buy higher later, then you've lost shares. Of course, you already know all this and are lying awake at night thinking about it like I am.
As one data point, I bought a bunch yesterday. Valuations were such that it seemed like a good value and it also seems like there's a lot of emotion in the market from a buildup of bad news. I had previously sold last January when the valuations were looking idiotic and emotions were reversed. I spent much of 2018 in agony as no further obvious (to me) buying opportunity arose and I sat on a pile of cash feeling stupid as the market made its run from Feb to Sep. Now I don't feel quite as stupid, but I don't feel smart either.
I suspect that just buying and holding would be a lot better for my mental health. It obviously pays off in the loooooonnnngggg run and can even weather things like '08.
BTW, if I had perfect information, I would invest in lottery tickets instead of stocks/bonds.
I just bought a new pair of running shoes and am taking lots of long runs to get high on endorphins. I recommend this.
At this point, you haven't lost anything, you still own the same amount of shares that you did before. If you sell now and then fail to identify the real bottom and buy higher later, then you've lost shares. Of course, you already know all this and are lying awake at night thinking about it like I am.
As one data point, I bought a bunch yesterday. Valuations were such that it seemed like a good value and it also seems like there's a lot of emotion in the market from a buildup of bad news. I had previously sold last January when the valuations were looking idiotic and emotions were reversed. I spent much of 2018 in agony as no further obvious (to me) buying opportunity arose and I sat on a pile of cash feeling stupid as the market made its run from Feb to Sep. Now I don't feel quite as stupid, but I don't feel smart either.
I suspect that just buying and holding would be a lot better for my mental health. It obviously pays off in the loooooonnnngggg run and can even weather things like '08.
BTW, if I had perfect information, I would invest in lottery tickets instead of stocks/bonds.
I just bought a new pair of running shoes and am taking lots of long runs to get high on endorphins. I recommend this.
#67
Junior Member
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Location: Coral Springs, FL
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Welp. I'm close to being flat for the year. Took out a long position on SDS that helped offset the hits a bit.
Good news is this volatility is admittedly good for business on the brokerage side. Bad news is my inbox and voicemails are a raging dumpster fire :(. if you need me, i'll be working on my Miata.
Good news is this volatility is admittedly good for business on the brokerage side. Bad news is my inbox and voicemails are a raging dumpster fire :(. if you need me, i'll be working on my Miata.
#69
DEI liberal femininity
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Welp. I'm close to being flat for the year. Took out a long position on SDS that helped offset the hits a bit.
Good news is this volatility is admittedly good for business on the brokerage side. Bad news is my inbox and voicemails are a raging dumpster fire :(. if you need me, i'll be working on my Miata.
Good news is this volatility is admittedly good for business on the brokerage side. Bad news is my inbox and voicemails are a raging dumpster fire :(. if you need me, i'll be working on my Miata.
#70
Boost Pope
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Location: Chicago. (The less-murder part.)
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Now down 16.7% from where I bought in.
In the same timeframe, @sixshooter , VSMAX is off by around 25%, illustrating the downside to small-caps.
Someone convince me not to liquidate first thing Wednesday, and convert to SDS.
#71
This strategy is not going well.
Now down 16.7% from where I bought in.
In the same timeframe, @sixshooter , VSMAX is off by around 25%, illustrating the downside to small-caps.
Someone convince me not to liquidate first thing Wednesday, and convert to SDS.
Now down 16.7% from where I bought in.
In the same timeframe, @sixshooter , VSMAX is off by around 25%, illustrating the downside to small-caps.
Someone convince me not to liquidate first thing Wednesday, and convert to SDS.
That’s all the convincing I can muster at the moment.
Merry Christmas!
#72
Boost Pope
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Location: Chicago. (The less-murder part.)
Posts: 33,455
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That said, I acknowledge that it's impossible to predict the future.
#74
Sorry Joe. After all the brave talk . . . I bailed.
Seems to be a bear market now.
I don't see the influences that caused this abating in the near term (only exception being the return of institutional investors after the New Year), so I'm just going to chill for the holidays and lick my wounds.
Seems to be a bear market now.
I don't see the influences that caused this abating in the near term (only exception being the return of institutional investors after the New Year), so I'm just going to chill for the holidays and lick my wounds.
#78
In theory. Studies show people, especially non-professionals, are pretty bad at this timing and end up underperforming the market even when they are investing almost entirely in indexes. Pick an asset class that fits your risk tolerance and stick with it. Rebalance quarterly. If your stomach turns from short term volatility you are either overestimating your risk tolerance or you need a Xanax.
#79
Elite Member
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Its sucks, but Im just going to roll through it like always.
Also, professionals are pretty bad at timing markets too. Building a market portfolio is always the answer unless you know how to cheat (like building an infrared laser computer network all over wall street).
Also, professionals are pretty bad at timing markets too. Building a market portfolio is always the answer unless you know how to cheat (like building an infrared laser computer network all over wall street).